This report originates from a taskforce of academics, industry and policy experts to examine the resilience of the global food system to extreme weather events. This synthesis report is built on three detailed reports: Climate and global production shocks, Review of the responses to production shocks and the Country-level impacts of global grain production shocks.
The authors present evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing. Although much more work needs to be done to reduce uncertainty, preliminary analysis of limited existing data suggests that the risk of a 1-in-100 year production shock is likely to increase to 1-in-30 or more by 2040.
The report includes a visual of the scenarios, and outlines key recommendations in areas of understanding risk, coordinated risk management, the functioning of international markets, bolstering national resilience to market shocks, and adaptation of agriculture to a changing climate.