Zambia country climate and development report

This report outlines a set of reforms aimed at positioning Zambia on an upper-middle-income growth path by mid-century in the context of climate change. For the past decade, Zambia has moved in and out of low-income status, struggling to link its abundant natural resources to sustained growth and poverty reduction, a problem that will only get harder with climate change. The drought of 2023-2024 was a sign of the direction climate change is likely to take, with a fivefold increase in extreme droughts anticipated even before 2050.

Public sector resilience-building measures, especially in social protection, spared Zambians from the full impact of the 2023-2024 drought. Still, much greater climate resilience could be achieved by accelerating existing sector adaptation strategies and embracing private sector–led growth. The report also examines how a range of climate scenarios will impact the Business-As-Usual (BAU) and the National Green Growth Strategy (NGGS) development trajectories. The challenge, therefore, is to identify packages of policy reforms and investment that shift Zambia from the BAU to the NGGS development trajectory while enhancing climate resilience and reducing emissions.