Wildfire risk indices and the built environment

Headwaters Economics, in partnership with Pyrologix (a Vibrant Planet company) and the U.S. Fire Administration, analyzed the state of wildfire risk modeling to identify opportunities for improvement. The two-part report includes a detailed inventory of existing wildfire risk indices (Part 1) and expert interviews to highlight solutions (Part 2).

In Part 1, the report covers the current state of the wildfire risk modeling field, and the opportunities for integrating principles of structure-to-structure (S2S) ignition. It concludes that current S2S fire spread models are still in early stages of development, and require advancements in fire science, data, and technology to improve overall structural risk modeling.

In Part 2, structured interviews with 30 experts in wildfire risk modeling for the built environment were conducted. These interviews revealed both divergent perspectives and common themes that highlight opportunities for advancing the field, with five common themes emerging, given as follows:

1. The complexity of wildfire in the built environment requires bridging wildland and built environment models
2. A lack of coordination and collaboration across disciplines and agencies hampers progress
3. Gaps in risk components limit model accuracy and validation
4. Operational readiness is constrained by challenges in reproducibility, model validation, scalability, and usability for practitioners
5. Experts emphasize that risk modeling must expand beyond individual structures