Urban expansion and protection gaps amid evolving flood exposure

This report outlines how flood exposure in Germany is evolving as climate change, rapid urban expansion, and uneven protection levels interact to heighten disaster risk across more than 11,000 municipalities. Using high‑resolution settlement data (2016–2025), multi‑hazard flood models, climate scenarios, and detailed dike‑protection maps, the study assesses where and why exposure is rising, showing that settlement growth in flood‑prone zones often outpaces growth in safer areas. It highlights substantial mismatches between exposure and structural protection, particularly in regions dominated by pluvial and coastal flooding, and demonstrates that future climate change—especially under high‑emissions scenarios—will significantly intensify flood hazards. Chapters analysing climate‑driven exposure growth and protection gaps provide critical insights for disaster risk reduction, including the need to align land‑use planning, adaptation strategies, and investment in protective infrastructure. 

The authors recommend strengthening governance and coordination across federal, state, and municipal levels, improving enforcement of land‑use regulations, and prioritising investment in underprotected municipalities—particularly those facing severe fluvial or coastal hazards. They emphasise the importance of integrating climate mitigation with adaptation, expanding nature‑based and structural protection measures, and enhancing early‑warning systems and public awareness.