Understanding the climate and net-zero transition risks and opportunities in Uzbekistan

This brief summarises Uzbekistan-specific findings and recommendations from the reports Opportunities and co-benefits of transitioning to a net-zero economy in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and Managing climate risks to protect net-zero energy goals.

The transition to renewable energy could make both public and private markets accessible to investors in Uzbekistan. An increased RE share in the energy mix can significantly increase Uzbekistan’s generation capacities. Transition also presents an opportunity to integrate renewables and energy efficiency goals that could have a mutually advantageous impact on policy development to address climate change. A combined portfolio of renewables and energy efficiency technologies could reduce emissions by one-third to one-half.

Key messages of this brief, include:

• The estimated levelised cost of electricity for solar PV in Uzbekistan is lower than both the global average, but also the country LCOEs for gas and coal thermal power plants.
• The transition offers co-benefits in terms of job creation, reducing emissions, reducing climate risk by diversifying generation portfolios and improving the viability of the energy sector. Nonetheless, doing so will require tackling the many policy challenges that impede the transformation of the energy sector.
• Uzbekistan’s future energy infrastructure must be designed with increasing demand, including that related to economic growth and diversification, climate change, and other threats like cyber-attacks in mind.
• The country should conduct full semi-quantitative to quantitative all-hazards risk assessments to identify risks over the decades that the infrastructure will operate, and to understand the costs and benefits of mitigation.