Managing climate risks to protect net-zero energy goals: Net-zero transition opportunities in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

This study is a preliminary risk screening of regional climate change risks to electricity generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. All three countries have established green energy visions and are pursuing renewables portfolios of small- to utility-scale solar, wind and hydropower projects through mixed financing from development banks, the Green Climate Fund and private investment.

Key recommendations of this study, include:

• Update national disaster risk management policies and National Adaptation Plans to require all hazards risk management for infrastructure, and develop a regional all-hazards risk management framework and guidelines.
• Require semi-quantitative to quantitative all-hazards risk assessments for infrastructure, and develop a regional energy system assessment.
• Continue to rehabilitate weather, river and glacier monitoring stations, and increase their numbers for better observational data. National hydrometeorology agencies should join CORDEX and other global climate modelling initiatives that underpin the IPCC Assessments.
• Consider cost-effectiveness, robustness and co-benefits of potential energy infrastructure over the short and long term, with the costs of climate change and failure to adopt robust infrastructure factored in.
• Increase diversification of generation types, and strengthen transmission and distribution grids, but consider where they are built, to reduce exposure and transmission losses.
• Join the Asian Development Bank’s CAREC Disaster Risk Transfer Facility to reduce financial risks while enhancing regional collaboration on climate and all-hazards risk management.
• Continue to strengthen efficiency efforts to reduce energy and water demand, and use both within country and in coordination with regional partners.