Sustaining disaster risk reduction in shrinking cities: Policy evidence from Rikuzentakata, Japan

This study highlights how disaster risk reduction can be sustained in shrinking cities by analysing public support for different DRR measures in Rikuzentakata, Japan, more than a decade after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Drawing on a stated‑preference survey and discrete choice modelling, it examines why stand‑alone DRR measures—such as risk awareness, memory transmission, prevention facilities, and information networks—receive limited support when pursued in isolation, and how this relates to demographic decline, fading disaster memory, and competing livelihood priorities. The study addresses three core questions on the effects of DRR measures, their interactions, and their relationship with economic‑livelihood measures (ELMs), offering evidence relevant to long‑term recovery governance in line with the Sendai Framework, the SDGs, and the Paris Agreement. 

The findings recommend that medium‑ to long‑term DRR strategies in shrinking cities should avoid implementing DRR measures in isolation, as these can generate dilution effects and weaken public support. Instead, the study proposes integrated policy packages that combine DRR with complementary ELMs—such as job creation, community interaction, inclusive public spaces, and ICT‑enabled services—to generate co‑benefits and strengthen acceptance. Lessons learned emphasise the value of urban‑systems approaches, cross‑sectoral planning, and mainstreaming DRR into routine investments in education, transport, and local industries. These approaches can help municipalities facing fiscal and demographic constraints to sustain resilience and ensure that DRR remains socially legitimate and economically feasible over time.