Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia

This study assesses how climate change may influence fire weather conditions across Australia using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and high-resolution climate simulations from dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate models. The research evaluates how fire weather may evolve under different global warming levels and focuses particularly on the highly flammable eucalyptus forests of southeast Australia, which have historically experienced some of the country’s most destructive wildfires. The analysis also examines how bias-corrected climate datasets can improve the accuracy of fire weather projections.

The results show that both the frequency and magnitude of extreme fire weather events are projected to increase substantially as global temperatures rise. Severe fire weather days are expected to increase across much of Australia, with particularly strong increases in southern regions. In southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests, extreme fire weather events that historically occurred every 20 or 50 years are projected to become significantly more likely under higher warming scenarios. These changes suggest a longer and more intense wildfire season, posing growing risks for ecosystems, communities, and fire management systems.