Shaking urban crime: Earthquakes, stress and crime in neighbourhoods

This study analyses the impact of the earthquakes that occurred on the 7 and 19 September 2017, with magnitudes of 8.2 and 7.1 respectively, on crime patterns in Mexico City. Using geo-spatial techniques (LISA and SPPT), crime data in 1807 neighbourhoods were examined, with particular attention to the 196 areas affected by the collapse of buildings. Results reveal the appearance of new crime hotspots that significantly modified the spatial patterns of sexual abuse, robbery in public transport, and domestic violence, although with no significant effect on rape and death from self-harm.

These patterns vary on a spatial level: there is a concentration of interpersonal crimes in the northern neighbourhoods, while domestic violence was concentrated in the south. The study uses General Strain Theory (GST) as a theoretical framework for interpreting the various responses to post-disaster stress based on pre-existing local conditions. By using the location of collapsed buildings as an indirect measure of stress, the study demonstrates the usefulness of GST for understanding crime following earthquakes on a neighbourhood level, and highlights the role of disasters as catalysts for latent criminogenic dynamics. These findings have important implications for the design of targeted public policies and strategies for reducing the risk of victimisation following disasters in urban contexts.