Probabilistic modeling of InSAR-derived land subsidence hazard in New York City for transportation infrastructure damage risk assessments

This study assesses land subsidence risk to New York City’s transportation infrastructure using satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data combined with a probabilistic modeling framework. Analyzing vertical land motion from 2016–2024, the authors find that most of the city is subsiding, with higher rates concentrated in low-lying, coastal, and reclaimed areas, while localized uplift occurs in limited zones linked to hydrological processes. 

The study translates observed subsidence into angular distortion, an engineering proxy for infrastructure damage, and projects risk under 30- and 50-year scenarios. Results indicate that while short-term deformation remains modest, cumulative subsidence substantially increases long-term damage probabilities, particularly for airports, subway lines, and highways. LaGuardia and JFK airports, coastal highways, and several subway corridors emerge as high-risk hotspots, with projected economic exposure reaching billions of dollars. The findings highlight the importance of continuous monitoring, probabilistic risk assessment, and proactive infrastructure adaptation to manage long-term subsidence and climate-related risks in dense coastal cities.