Increasing hourly population exposure to moderate cold under climate warming

The article examines how climate warming is reshaping human exposure to cold temperatures worldwide. Using observational data and climate model simulations from 1979 to 2100, the study analyses global hourly population exposure across different cold categories and investigates links between cold exposure and influenza transmission.

Results show that while extreme cold hours are declining, exposure to moderate cold is increasing, driving a substantial rise in global population cold exposure—especially alongside population growth. The study also finds a significant correlation between cold exposure and influenza positivity rates, highlighting an under-recognised public health risk that requires greater attention despite overall warming trends.