High temperatures in the May 2026 Western European heatwave exacerbated by human-driven climate change

This paper finds that the high temperatures in the May 2026 Western European heatwave were exacerbated by human-driven climate change.

The key highlights of this analysis include:

• Meteorological conditions similar to those causing the May 2026 Western European heatwave are up to 2.5 °C warmer than they were in the past.
• The most extreme heat conditions intensified by climate change have exposed about 124 million people and 5885 billion USD of economic activity.
• This event was associated with rare meteorological conditions that, in the past, occurred mainly in autumn but are now also emerging in spring. In late spring, however, they can favor the development of a heat dome, amplifying already hot conditions.
• The paper ascribes the high temperatures causing the May 2026 Western European Heatwave to human-driven climate change, while natural climate variability likely played a minor role.