Green Leap – El Niño heating up inflation

This research briefing examines the intensifying El Niño weather event and its projected impact on inflation across Africa in 2026/27. Drawing on climatic modelling, meteorological data, and agricultural production estimates, the study focuses on how the interaction between El Niño and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole will likely amplify drought conditions in Southern Africa. It also considers trade and energy market factors—including diesel price spreads and conflict-related supply disruptions—that add complexity to food-price dynamics.

Key findings reveal that severe El Niño episodes have historically reduced southern African maize production by 40%-60%, with the 2024 event cutting output by over 20%. Countries like South Africa and Zambia enter the 2026/27 season with robust grain reserves, while Angola and Namibia are vulnerable due to weak buffers. Food’s heavy weighting in African consumer price baskets means rising food prices could drive sharper inflation than recent oil shocks; most major markets are forecast to experience higher inflation in 2027. Authors recommend pre-emptive disaster risk management, including strategic food reserves, emergency financing, staggered planting, cultivar choice, and enhanced early-warning systems, alongside coordinated government and humanitarian response strategies.