Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

This study outlines how intensifying extreme heat, driven by human‑caused climate change, has already reduced economic growth, particularly in low‑income tropical regions that have contributed least to global emissions. Drawing on subnational economic data, climate model simulations, and a metric capturing the hottest five days each year, the study quantifies where, when, and by how much extreme heat has depressed productivity, labour capacity, and overall economic output. It finds that between 1992 and 2013, anthropogenic heat extremes caused cumulative global losses likely between USD 16–50 trillion, with the steepest annual per‑capita losses—around 8%—occurring in the poorest regions. 

The paper recommends strengthening adaptation measures that specifically target the hottest days of the year, as these short periods account for a disproportionately large share of economic losses. It highlights the value of early‑warning systems, heat‑resilient infrastructure, and temporary protective measures such as cooling centres, alongside long‑term investments in urban greening and improved working conditions. The authors emphasise that better subnational economic data—especially in Africa and Southeast Asia—are crucial for more accurate risk assessments.