Diagnosing post-wildfire flood governance gaps through a values–rules–knowledge lens: a case study from Kineta, Greece

This diagnosis involved the collation and synthesis of reported and observed interactions of the behavioural, cultural, disciplinary and regulatory dimensions of flood-risk governance that explain the persistence of inaction. A three-stage participatory roadmap is then proposed to translate flood-risk modelling outputs and VRK analyses into policy- or practice-relevant insights that lead to more timely and targeted investment in post-wildfire erosion and flood protection treatments (PEFTs). Post-wildfire flash floods are an escalating climate-driven hazard. Advanced technical modelling can now inform impact assessments and evaluate interventions to mitigate these risks, yet such analyses are often not supported by adequate governance frameworks to facilitate the implementation of the proposed solutions.

This leads to disconnects between technical analyses and decision-making and to missed opportunities to provide evidence-based prevention. Public spending tends to be skewed towards visible, post-event recovery, while diffuse prevention investments are persistently deprioritised. The coastal town of Kineta in Greece exemplifies this case: detailed flood modelling and design of post-wildfire erosion and flood protection treatments (PEFTs) were developed in prior work, but have not been implemented. Drawing on those previously published simulation results, public-domain documentary evidence and the authors' direct engagement with the case, the values–rules–knowledge (VRK) model of decision contexts was used as a diagnostic tool to identify the local flood governance approach. The diagnosis is presented as an expert-informed synthesis with a transparent audit trail. It identifies recurring value-rule, value-knowledge and rule-knowledge interactions that create persistent barriers to action in Kineta.