The compounded impact of climate change and armed conflict on the agri-food sector in northwest Syria

This report is part of a series of SPARC’s locally led research, led by programme partner Violet, which addresses a critical evidence gap by documenting how climate change and conflict interact as threat multipliers, setting off causal chains that explain the failure of Syria’s major value chains, particularly wheat, olives, and livestock.

This participatory research shows how climate shocks including droughts, erratic rainfall, frosts, and pest outbreaks, directly undermine agricultural yields, livestock productivity, and the sustainability of natural resources. These stresses are then magnified by conflict factors: the destruction of irrigation and veterinary systems, restricted access to land, loss of skilled labour through displacement, and rising input costs driven by sanctions, border closures, and currency depreciation.