Coastal flood impacts and lost ecosystem services along Europe’s outermost regions and overseas countries and territories

This study quantifies how rising sea levels and climate change are projected to increase coastal flooding, land loss, economic damages, and lost ecosystem services in Europe’s outermost regions (ORs) and overseas countries and territories (OCTs). Using flood modelling combined with exposure and vulnerability data, the authors find that the annual area flooded, the number of people exposed, and associated economic losses are all expected to rise substantially by 2050 and through 2150 under multiple climate scenarios. Results show that by mid-century flooded areas could more than double compared to today, with continued growth to the end of the century and beyond, and that even under lower emissions pathways, significant socio-economic impacts and ecosystem service losses will persist. The study highlights the disproportionate risk faced by island and remote regions, the importance of proactive resilience measures, and the benefits of stringent climate mitigation in reducing future impacts.