Climate risks to Syria’s electricity systems

This briefing paper presents key findings from a semi-quantitative climate risk assessment of Syria's electricity sector, intended to support the country's reconstruction efforts. It sets out considerations and opportunities for Syria to adapt its electricity infrastructure to climate change and to transition toward a more diverse renewables and higher-efficiency generation portfolio, in light of initial reconstruction plans. The paper is one of a set of climate risk assessments of Syria's key lifeline infrastructure, accompanied by a second briefing paper on urban drinking water and sanitation.

The paper emphasizes that while restoring and expanding electricity generation and transmission is critical for recovery, reconstruction must balance energy security, affordability, climate and disaster resilience, and sustainability to avoid locking in future risks. Rising temperatures, heat waves, and population return are expected to increase electricity demand, particularly for cooling, while reducing operating efficiency, increasing generation losses, and placing additional strain on transmission and distribution systems. A strategic shift toward energy efficiency, renewable energy, higher-efficiency generation, and cross-border interconnections is presented as a "triple win" that would reduce demand and generation expansion needs, enhance energy security, and improve environmental sustainability. Without climate-resilient planning, the paper warns, reconstruction investments risk maladaptive decisions, stranded assets, and higher fiscal and financial vulnerabilities, ultimately undermining long-term economic growth and stability.