Climate-economic country risk profile: India

This report examines India’s “double cost crunch” — the simultaneous economic pressure from climate damages and the low-carbon transition — and its geopolitical, geoeconomic and security dimensions. The GeoClimRisk project explores how climate damages, the transition to a low-carbon economy and their interaction might affect India. The analysis combines econometric estimates, bottom-up modelling and aggregate damage functions, including assessments of terrestrial water storage, capital and labour productivity, and overall GDP impacts.

The report finds that higher financing costs reduce wind and solar deployment, while climate change damages capital, reduces labour productivity and can weaken the capital base needed for the green transition. Under a current policy pathway, GDP losses in India could reach five–nine per cent in 2050 and thirteen–twenty three per cent by the end of the century. The report concludes that “immediate action is economically rational” and recommends early climate action, diversified energy, adaptation and resilient infrastructure, affordable finance, and stronger international cooperation.