Beyond the tide: building flood and erosion resilience in the Gambia

This report assesses flood and coastal erosion risks across the Greater Banjul Area — which concentrates nearly 60 percent of Gambia's national population and hosts tourism infrastructure contributing 12–16 percent of GDP — and translates that analysis into a risk-informed investment plan. It maps three flood hazard types (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal), divides the GBA into 19 discrete risk units, and projects how risks will evolve under climate change to 2040 and 2070. The report also reviews the institutional and policy landscape for flood and coastal risk management, identifies governance gaps, and assesses opportunities for nature-based solutions including mangrove restoration, sustainable urban drainage, and green river belt development. Gender dimensions of flood vulnerability and a set of replicable methodological lessons for other coastal cities round out the analysis.

The assessment finds that pluvial flooding currently dominates risk across the GBA, accounting for roughly 90 percent of total flood damages in 2020, but that coastal flood risk will grow disproportionately, shifting the balance to approximately 40 percent coastal versus 60 percent pluvial by 2070. Over US$2.1 billion in assets, equivalent to more than 90 percent of national GDP, sit within 800 metres of the coastline, and coastal erosion rates along the tourism corridor reach up to 4.7 metres per year. Five priority hotspots were selected for targeted intervention — Banjul City, Oyster Creek, the Fajara–Senegambia beach corridor, Kotu Stream, and the eastern urban area including Ebo Town — with recommended investments ranging from upgrading the Banjul bund road (US$4.8 million, high priority) to offshore breakwaters or beach nourishment along the tourism coast (US$38–43 million). Mangrove restoration in the Tanbi Wetland Complex and Oyster Creek alone could generate coastal protection benefits valued at approximately US$30 million. The report also identifies persistent governance gaps, fragmented institutional mandates, weak enforcement of land-use regulations, limited real-time flood forecasting, and absence of a dedicated national strategy for nature-based solutions, as the key structural barriers to effective risk reduction.