Assessment of El Niño-associated risks: the Stepwise process

The purpose of this guidance note is to provide technical, step-by-step guidance for assessing the risks and biophysical and socioeconomic impacts associated with El Niño and translating the scientific language into actionable decision-making and response options for stakeholders. The 2026–27 El Niño is emerging as an exceptionally strong climate event with potentially wide-ranging consequences for disaster risk, livelihoods and development. As of October 8, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist and strengthen through February 2027 (WMO, 2026a). 

The nine-step methodology assesses El Niño-associated hazards, biophysical and socioeconomic impacts, and the risks that may persist beyond the climate event. Steps 1–4 review global forecasts, characterize the El Niño episode, assess changes in the probability of extremes, and evaluate the likelihood of extreme events. Step 5 assesses biophysical impacts, and Step 6 examines socioeconomic impacts and cascading consequences. Step 7 assesses extended impacts and livelihood recovery. Step 8 communicates risks to support informed decisions, while Step 9 translates the assessment into mitigative and anticipatory actions across strategic, tactical, operational and longer-term planning horizons. These steps operate as an integrated process within the broader monitoring–preparedness–response–recovery continuum.  

The target audience for the guidance note includes government officials, development practitioners, humanitarian actors, development partners, and UN Country Teams. The assessment helps translate climate forecasts into a clearer understanding of the risks that may emerge, where impacts are most likely to occur, and who may be most affected. The findings can inform the identification of appropriate anticipatory actions, preparedness measures, and recovery considerations across relevant sectors.