El Niño/La Niña update August 2026

The August 2026 WMO El Niño/La Niña Update confirms that El Niño is firmly established across the equatorial Pacific and is continuing to strengthen. Seasonal forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027, with the event expected to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of the year.

Key messages from the update include:

• El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further
• WMO Forecasts show near 100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027
• Exceptionally warm tropical Pacific Ocean conditions support further intensification
• A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and fuel extreme weather
• WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services step up preparedness and early-warning efforts for an exceptional event