Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between nine key human-induced drivers and the out-break risk of WHO priority diseases, excluding COVID-19. We also developed a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that reflects each country-specific risk versus its capacity to respond to zoonotic threats.

The findings indicate that while some countries show a linear relationship between outbreak risk and epidemic risk, others can reduce their risk through effective zoonotic response capabilities. Some countries show a marked difference between their IHR C3 data and maximum predicted outbreak risk, resulting in a lower epidemic risk index than their outbreak risk would suggest, which highlights the importance of response capacity in mitigating risk.