Analysis for resilient and adaptive fisheries in Madagascar

This World Bank report examines how climate change is affecting Madagascar’s marine ecosystems, fisheries resources and coastal communities. Using climate projections, ecological modelling and socioeconomic analysis, it evaluates future changes in ocean conditions, species distributions, fisheries productivity and community vulnerability under low-, medium- and high-emissions scenarios. The assessment finds that warming oceans, increasingly intense marine heatwaves and changing habitat suitability will have significant impacts on fisheries resources, particularly pelagic species and coral reef ecosystems.

The study highlights the implications of climate change for food security, livelihoods and economic development in coastal regions that depend heavily on fisheries. It assesses both national and regional vulnerability and identifies areas where exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity differ substantially. The report also analyses projected changes in fisheries catch potential and revenue under alternative climate futures. Drawing on stakeholder consultations, the publication proposes adaptation pathways centred on ecosystem protection, community resilience, sustainable fisheries governance, livelihood diversification, early warning systems, education and climate-informed planning. It offers short-, medium- and long-term recommendations to support a resilient and inclusive blue economy in Madagascar.