Africa's water-related risks to humanity: Spatial patterns and archetypes

This research article examines water-related risks across Africa using a continent-wide assessment framework based on the combined influence of eight water stressors, human exposure, and societal adaptive capacity. The authors apply the multiplicative risk framework of the IPCC Sixth Assessment and the Sendai Framework to analyse 52 African countries and 35 river basins. The assessment integrates eight stressors, including inadequate drinking water, sanitation, droughts, floods, groundwater decline, overuse, eutrophication, and organic pollution, together with population exposure and vulnerability measured through human development and government effectiveness indicators.

The study finds that WASH-service risks are the most prevalent and affect the largest population. High-risk areas are concentrated along the equatorial and sub-equatorial belt of Africa and are characterized by low HDI scores, limited governance capacity, and multiple concurrent water stressors. The Nile, Congo, and Niger basins record the highest risk levels, while Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Egypt emerge as the most severely affected countries.