Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century

This paper provides a conceptual discussion of what risks to peace entail and how such risks might be considered severe, acknowledging that perceptions, values, and social scale must be grappled with in the identification of severity. Informed by available empirical research, it then explores the conditions under which climate-related risks could become severe during this century.

Three illustrative scenarios based on different assumptions about climate-driven risks and risks related to social responses to climate change illustrate how alternative warming and adaptation trajectories will have distinct implications for the prospect of future peace.