Climate change is heating up West Africa's cocoa belt

This report analyzes how warming temperatures, attributed to climate change, affected the number of days with maximum temperatures above 32oC during the main and mid-crop cycles in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria over the past 10 years (2015-2024). The analysis uses observed temperature data as well as estimates of counterfactual temperatures - or temperatures that would have occurred in a world without human-induced climate change.

Analysis of daily maximum temperatures during the past decade shows that climate change added at least three weeks above 32°C (89.6°F) annually during the main cacao crop season (October-March) in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Such temperatures are above the optimal temperature range for cacao trees. Over the same time period, climate change added just over two weeks above 32°C annually during the main crop season in Cameroon and more than one week in Nigeria. In 2024, human-caused climate change added six weeks’ worth of days above 32°C in 71% of cacao-producing areas across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. While many factors, such as precipitation and insect-borne infections, can affect cacao trees, excessive heat can contribute to a reduction in the quantity and quality of the harvest — potentially increasing global chocolate prices and impacting local economies in West Africa.