As the planet heats up, permafrost, wildfires, wetlands, and freshwaters are starting to release greenhouse gases of their own—on top of everything human activity and infrastructure already emit—driving up global temperatures. These processes, collectively referred to as warming-induced emissions, are among the biggest blind spots in climate models and policies. New research provides better estimates of the scale of these feedbacks.
The warming feeds the warming
Scientists have long anticipated that rising temperatures could trigger more emissions from natural sources as they warm, which in turn would lead to even more warming. In 1986, legendary ecologist George Woodwell described this phenomenon as ‘the warming feeds the warming’. Perhaps the best known—but as this explainer shows, not the only—example is permafrost thaw. As the planet warms, permafrost thaws, releasing carbon that has been frozen for centuries. These carbon dioxide and methane emissions trap heat, causing more warming, driving further thaw, and even more emissions in a self-reinforcing feedback loop.
Despite this phenomenon being well known, quantifying and modeling these Earth system feedbacks across different types of warming natural systems for the entire planet remains extremely difficult. Thus, the full amount of warming these effects will cause has long remained poorly understood and thus excluded from climate policy. Specifically, warming-induced emissions are left out of pledges, targets, and emissions inventories under the UNFCCC.
The amount of warming that comes from these natural systems is directly related to the amount of warming from human-caused direct emissions. If human emissions decline, so too do warming-induced emissions. However, some amount of warming-induced emissions may already be locked in, which is an active area of research.
The figures below, which are drawn from Abernethy et al., 2026, include significant uncertainties (see Uncertainty section below). A larger multi-model intercomparison project—the Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (WIEMIP)—which is now underway, aims to produce more comprehensive estimates of these emissions.
Despite their magnitude, warming-induced emissions have remained poorly understood and are absent from most of the models used to inform climate policy. This means that most current climate projections likely underestimate future warming.
What are warming-induced emissions?
Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, increasing droughts, and other impacts from climate change are causing many natural systems to undergo profound changes. Some of these changes result in more greenhouse gas emissions, including not only carbon dioxide but also methane and nitrous oxide, which are highly potent super pollutants. These greenhouse gas climate feedbacks add to direct human-driven emissions and amplify global warming in a self-perpetuating cycle.
Long anticipated by scientists, there is now growing evidence that some of these changes have already begun.
These warming-induced emissions will amplify global warming and pose a significant risk to maintaining a safe and stable climate.
How much will these systems emit globally?
Explore the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions under different scenarios.