‘Super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock lasting into 2028, analysts say

Economists are warning that a “super” El Niño weather cycle this year could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028. As the Iran war pushes up world food prices to the highest level in three years, economists said supply chains faced “two shocks at once” stoked by extreme weather linked to global heating.

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“El Niño puts ‘climateflation’ back on the agenda,” analysts at the Italian bank UniCredit wrote in a research note. “Europe’s recent heatwaves are a reminder that the climate baseline is already shifting. El Niño could add a new layer of pressure later this year, as it amplifies the effects of global warming.”

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However, the full effect will take time because of how the cost of climate impact percolates through global food supplies. As a result, Goldman Sachs said the consequences could take until the second half of 2028 to be “fully realised”.

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“El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers,” analysts at UBS said. Some regions could stand to benefit from warmer weather conditions.

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