From shaking to consequences: GEM to unveil new global earthquake risk products

Building on GEM’s landmark 2018 global release, the new 2026 products update and expand the global view of seismic hazard and risk to include infrastructure exposure to liquefaction, future risk trajectories, and the carbon cost of earthquake damage and reconstruction.

16 June 2026. Pavia, Italy. At GEM Conference 2026 in Zagreb next week, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation will unveil a new generation of global seismic hazard and risk products, marking a major step forward from its first global release in 2018.

The 2018 release gave the world one of its first open, globally consistent views of earthquake hazard and risk. The 2026 release goes further. It updates GEM’s core global hazard and risk models while widening the lens of earthquake risk analysis: from ground shaking and building losses to infrastructure disruption, future exposure and the carbon emissions associated with earthquake damage and reconstruction.

“Since GEM’s first global release in 2018, both the science and the scope of earthquake risk analysis have advanced,” said Helen Crowley, Secretary General of the GEM Foundation. “The 2026 products are not simply updated maps. They show that earthquake risk is dynamic and multidimensional - affecting the buildings we live in, the roads we rely on, the emissions generated through reconstruction, and the decisions we make today that shape tomorrow’s risk.”

The June 2026 release will include updated global seismic hazard and risk products, together with new global analyses of road network exposure to liquefaction, the carbon cost of earthquake damage, and future seismic risk through to 2065. Together, the products address a central question: how is the global picture of earthquake risk changing, and what does this mean for disaster risk reduction, planning and resilience?

For advanced coverage, journalists are invited to contact GEM at [email protected] for approved preview material ahead of the 23 June public release.

A broader view of earthquake risk

The 2026 release expands global earthquake risk assessment beyond where the ground may shake to show how earthquakes can affect buildings, roads, recovery, emissions and future development.

• A planetary-scale hazard map - GEM’s 2026 hazard product extends, for the first time, probabilistic seismic hazard coverage across the oceans, providing a more complete global foundation for impact and risk analysis.
• Earthquakes and infrastructure disruption - The first global analysis of road exposure to liquefaction highlights where earthquake-induced ground failure could disrupt transport corridors, emergency access, logistics and recovery.
• The carbon cost of earthquakes - GEM’s new embodied-carbon risk model estimates the emissions associated with earthquake damage, repair and reconstruction, adding an environmental dimension to seismic risk assessment. 
• Forward-looking risk scenarios to 2045 and 2065 - exploring how seismic risk may evolve as population, settlements, building stock and construction practices change.