‘A sad inevitability’: after decades of climate warnings, why is Europe so unprepared for rising heat?
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Yet despite repeated warnings and rising awareness, heatwaves still bring large parts of the continent to its knees. Several hospitals in England have declared critical incidents as a result of extreme heat, with cooling units breaking down and critical IT systems stalling , while schools, workplaces and railways have been thrown into chaos and wildfires have broken out. In France, where half of all homes have poor protection from high heat , more than 55 people have drowned while trying to cool down , four young children have died inside hot cars and two nuclear reactors have been forced to close for lack of cooling water.
Has Europe failed to learn from its past? The devastation of summer 2003 triggered the first serious attempts to deal with heat, as governments linked early warning systems to rapid response measures for when temperatures rose, such as limiting travel, closing schools and cancelling non-urgent appointments in hospitals. Research has found such adaptations have proved successful, with mortality rates now far less sensitive to shifts in temperature. If the 2003 heatwave were to strike today with the same strength, a study found in November, the projected death toll would be 75% lower.
But at the same time, heatwaves are growing hotter, longer and more common – and it is entirely unclear if efforts to adapt will keep up with the rising concentrations of planet-heating pollution in the atmosphere. This year, early warning systems kicked into action before the summer had even begun , as shock May heat swept north-west Europe and shattered the UK’s historical temperature record for May by a full 2C. Two weeks later, the Europe chief of the World Health Organization (WHO), Hans Kluge, stood in Berlin to announce the update of the WHO’s guidelines for heat health action plans, 18 years after they were first released. Just two weeks have passed since then, and Berlin is facing 40C heat.
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For scientists who have long warned that heatwaves are getting worse as carbon pollution rises, the failure to follow expert advice has become tiring. “There’s a sad inevitability to all of this, with scientists like me trotting out the same quotes year after year,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the WWA study, speaking before this week’s records had been broken. “Yes it’s climate change, yes it’s us, no it’s not El Niño. Simply put, we remain on a one-way trip towards a more dangerous future, and it’s time we hit the brakes.”
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