A new look at trends in human deaths due to climate extremes
A new study of climate extremes since 1988 finds that many regions have seen increases in deaths due to floods, storms and extreme temperatures. In human terms, the harm comes not just from deaths, but also from lost labor and property damage. (And this doesn't consider damage to species and ecosystems.) A new look at trends and outliers has been published in Geophysical Research Letters.
[...]
Cael's analysis examined three areas in particular. Extreme floods and storms in Asia have not become less frequent, but they have become less deadly due to a reduced vulnerability due to an increase in adaptive capacity, saving about 350,000 lives over the years 1988 to 2024. (In particular, his statistical analysis found there was a 95% probability that the number was between 220,000 and 560,000 lives saved.)
In other words, Cael writes, "Development‐driven vulnerability reduction in Asia over 1988–2024 has resulted in hundreds of thousands few[er] people dying from floods and storms compared to a scenario where vulnerability stayed constant and the Asian population continued to grow at the pace at which it did."
This is a large number of lives saved, both absolutely and relatively. From the EM-DAT, Cael further finds that Asian flood and storm events with 30 or more deaths were responsible for 511,875 recorded deaths, "meaning the above result corresponds to a 40% (with a 95% confidence interval of 30% to 52%) reduction in Asian flood and storm mortality over 1988–2024, even without accounting for intensifying precipitation extremes due to climate change."
[...]