IRIN reports on the impacts of El Niño and climate change

Johannesburg - Rice producing Asian countries had to contend with poor rains in 2009, and now another season of low rainfall has been forecast for some of them, which has prompted concern whether the price of the grain could go up later in 2010. This is the second of a four-part series on food security where IRIN asks, "Are we heading for another crisis?" In this report we look at the possible impact of the current El Niño on rice prices in Asia and we find it seems a bit unclear.

In 2009 the impact of El Niño - the periodic flow of warm sea water across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean - disrupted rainfall patterns across Asia.

"In the short-term rice stocks are comfortable but it will be hard to predict the impact on prices if there is another bad season", Concepcion Calpe, Senior Commodity Specialist on rice with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

There are good stocks in the world's largest exporter of rice, Thailand, and the second largest, Vietnam, said Calpe. Vietnam's main rice growing area, the Mekong River Delta, is facing a serious drought.

Andrew Aaronson, chairperson of Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee on rice at the US Department of Agriculture concurred, "Global rice stocks are for the most part `comfortable' at the present time assuming normal import demand... The global rice situation is okay now, but is worth watching very closely."

But warned William Dar, director-general of the India-based International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), "Possible dry weather in coming months could negatively affect the secondary cropping seasons, mainly rice."

El Niño can lead to higher atmospheric temperatures and have a disruptive impact on seasonal rains. Experts believe the phenomenon will linger until the middle of 2010 in some parts, affecting crop yields.

Poor monsoons, linked by some experts to the El Niño in 2009, had affected rice yields in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

On March 4, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) said many parts of the Philippines had poor rainfall because of the current El Niño and dry spells would continue through to June 2010.

"We don't know yet if it [the lingering El Niño] will impact on the monsoons [in South Asia] again this year," said Calpe.

Aaronson said another poor monsoon in South Asia, particularly in India - a major consumer and producer - "could drastically change the current situation", but the El Niño has begun to turn moderate, which "may point to a more normal monsoon in 2010; however, that is just a guess at this time".

When food supply in Asia and the Pacific, home to two-thirds of the world's population, is inadequate, the effect ripples throughout the world and the impact on the global food supply can be partly responsible for a food crisis, as happened in 2008.

ICRISAT's Dar said PAG-ASA had forecast 40 percent to 60 percent less rainfall in the Philippines, and was expected to reduce rice yields significantly.

The Philippines is the world's biggest importer of rice. If the Philippines enters the market to buy it will have an impact on prices, experts believe. In its first Crop Prospects and Food Situation in 2010, FAO listed Philippines along with Bangladesh, China, Nepal and Iraq, as countries that were expected to import to compensate for crop losses because of poor rains.

FAO said rice stocks held by five major exporting countries - Thailand, Vietnam, India, Pakistan and the United States - would come under pressure.

Food prices have begun to rise within many Asian countries. "We might have entered a phase of high prices, food prices within countries remain high - the cost of production specially labour prices have gone up in Thailand and Vietnam," pointed out Calpe.

To deal with weather-related uncertainty in the long-term Dar called for a strategy to counter the impact of what he called "climaggedon", brought on by the combined effects of El Niño and climate change. He said governments should start phasing in hybrid seeds and crop varieties that were "climate change ready" to ensure food security, and consider water-saving irrigation technologies.