Earlier volcano prediction at Mount Etna made possible by new earthquake pattern analysis
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Currently, volcano prediction and monitoring is mainly done by tracking shallow magma movement and only allows for short-term eruption forecasts—giving locals in the region little time between an alert and an eruption.
However, a new study, published in Science Advances, describes a method of tracking earthquake patterns that correspond to magma recharge from the mantle, storage at intermediate depths, and its ascent to the surface before eruption, allowing for predictions months in advance.
The proposed method mostly hinges on a parameter called the "b value." The team says, "The b value expresses the proportion of small to large earthquakes and is thus inversely dependent on the mean earthquake magnitude."
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The results of their analysis show that monitoring b values in the past could have prevented volcanic crises at Etna. While scientists can't exactly go back in time and warn the people of Sicily about past events, they can incorporate b value monitoring into multiparametric surveillance systems for medium and long-term volcano monitoring in the future to help provide more timely alerts.
This new method of volcano prediction can likely be applied to other volcanoes throughout the world; however, reliable b value analysis depends on high-quality, continuous seismic monitoring and a sufficient number of earthquakes. So, application is limited to more active volcanic areas.