Climate intervention may not be enough to save coffee, chocolate and wine
A new study published in Environmental Research Letters reveals that even advanced climate intervention strategies may not be enough to secure the future of wine grapes, coffee and cacao.
These crops are vital to many economies and provide livelihoods for farmers worldwide. However, they are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns cause big variations in crop yields from year to year, meaning that farmers cannot rely on the stability of their harvest, and their produce is at risk.
The researchers specifically investigated Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) as a way of mitigating climate change in the top grape, coffee and cacao growing regions of western Europe, South America and West Africa. SAI is a hypothetical solar geoengineering method that involves releasing reflective particles into the stratosphere to cool Earth's surface, mimicking the natural cooling effects of volcanic eruptions.
Researchers examined whether SAI could help stabilize growing conditions for the crops between 2036 and 2045. Using climate simulations across 18 key regions, they assessed crop suitability based on temperature, rainfall, humidity, and disease risk.
While SAI did reduce surface temperatures, it failed to consistently preserve the conditions needed for successful cultivation of these crops. Only six out of 18 regions showed reliable improvement under SAI scenarios compared to a scenario without SAI.
The study found that unpredictable rainfall and humidity played a major role in undermining SAI's effectiveness. Although SAI could bring down temperatures, it may not reliably manage floods and humidity, leading to inconsistent outcomes in crop yield and projected revenue.
"Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn't enough," said co-author Dr. Ariel Morrison. "For instance, cacao species, while more tolerant of hot temperatures than coffee and grapes, are highly susceptible to pests and diseases caused by a combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity. Natural climate variability also cannot be ignored—it leads to a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario that could affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cacao, coffee, and grapes."
"SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming. Adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and global cooperation are essential to saving these crops and the communities that depend on them," adds Dr. Morrison.