Human behaviour: Risk perceptions and cognitive biases
You need to understand how people perceive risk to understand key barriers to, and drivers of, disaster risk reduction.
People’s perception of risk, and how they process information or make decisions, can be influenced by irrational reasoning.
Contents of Disaster Risk Communication Hub
- Introduction
- Process
- Principles
- The four phases of disaster risk communication
- Understand
- Consider what influences the issue
- Risk perceptions and cognitive biases (you are here)
- Gather information
- Scenario
- Resources
- Plan
- Do
- Improve
- Understand
- Main publications
- Case studies
- Further resources
Meyer and Kunreuther identify six decision-making biases that influence most disaster preparedness errors:
- Myopia – focusing on the short term and immediate costs when considering possible protection measures
- Amnesia – forgetting lessons from previous events
- Optimism –underestimating the likelihood of problems from future hazards
- Inertia – making no changes or keeping a default position in the face of uncertainty
- Simplification – focusing on only a few relevant facts when considering choices
- Herding – copying what other people do
A disaster risk communication goal might directly aim to change people’s perception of risk and therefore their behaviour. Even if your goal is less focused on altering risk perception, it is still crucial to understand your audience’s perceptions to ensure they engage with and act upon your talking points as intended.
Read this article on how we can make better decisions about risk based on the understanding of cognitive biases. The article is based on one of the chapters of the GAR 2022 report.