Scenario planning toward climate change adaptation

Scenario planning is a valuable decision support method for integrating irreducible and uncontrollable uncertainties into climate change adaptation and other planning in natural resource management. This overview course will introduce the core elements of scenario planning and expose participants to a diversity of approaches and specific scenario development techniques that incorporate both qualitative and quantitative components. Participants will learn how scenario planning can be integrated into planning frameworks and be complementary with other decision support methods. This course will provide participants with the skills needed to assess the appropriateness of scenario planning for their needs, and identify the resources and expertise needed to conduct a scenario planning exercise that will meet established objectives. The course is developed in partnership with the Wildlife Conservation Society and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Objectives:

• Describe basic steps and appropriate uses of scenario planning;
• Navigate the many approaches and understand their application.
• Construct situation-appropriate qualitative scenarios using a few scenario development techniques; and
• Outline considerations for moving from qualitative to quantitative scenarios.
• Assess objectives, goals, and strategies across multiple scenarios, and articulate basic principles for using this approach to select management options Integrate scenario planning into structured decision making processes.
• Develop monitoring plans and decision timelines, and determine triggers for future decisions.