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Drought and Desertification

A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather characterized by a prolonged deficiency of precipitation below a certain threshold over a large area and a period longer than a month (WMO, 2020).

It is a weather-related natural hazard, which can affect vast regions for months or years, significantly impacting economic performance, particularly food production. Millions of people are affected by droughts each year and it is expected that vulnerability to drought will increase due to population increases, environmental degradation, development pressures and climate change.

There is little, if anything, that can be done to alter the occurrence of droughts. However, it is important that scientists try to understand and communicate the probability of drought events of various levels of intensity and duration. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has adopted the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as a global standard to measure meteorological droughts on the basis of rainfall data.

The Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), co-sponsored by the WMO and the Global Partnership Water (GWP), have developed a three pillar approach to Integrated Drought Management. These pillars include: drought monitoring and early warning; drought vulnerability and impact assessment; and drought mitigation, preparedness and response. IDMP developed the National Drought Management Policy Guidelines, which include a 10-step process to assist countries in developing national drought plans and policies (WMO and GWP, 2014).

Drought types

Meteorological drought: Occurs when dry weather patterns dominate an area. It is defined usually on the basis to the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry period.

Agricultural drought: Occurs when agricultural production becomes affected. It focuses on precipitation shortages, differences between actual evapotranspiration, soil water deficits, reduced groundwater and so on.

Hydrological drought: Occurs when low water supply becomes evident and is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply.

Socio-economic drought: Relates to the supply and demand of some economic goods with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. It also occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply.

Drought risk factors

Drought risks are associated with:

  • Deficient or erratic rainfall. 
  • Poverty and rural vulnerability.
  • Poor water and soil management.
  • Weak or ineffective governance.
  • Climate change.

Vulnerable areas

Droughts affect all climactic regions, but parts of Africa are among the most vulnerable. 

  • For example, in the African Sahel, warmer and drier conditions have led to a reduced growing season with detrimental effects on crops. 
  • In southern Africa, longer dry seasons and more uncertain rainfall are prompting adaptation measures.
  • Poor rural households, whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, are the social groups most exposed and vulnerable to drought.
  • Droughts are rarely, or solely, responsible for conflicts, but they can contribute to the likelihood of conflict by increasing competition for scarce resources and by exacerbating ethnic tensions, usually due to displacement or migration.

Risk reduction measures

  • Policy and governance, political commitment for drought risk management.
  • Drought risk identification, impact assessment and early warning, including hazard monitoring and analysis.
  • Design and implementation of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impact of drought before it occurs to reduce the need for humanitarian assistance.
  • Drought awareness and knowledge management to create the basis for a culture of drought risk reduction and resilient communities.
  • Development of water-saving practices and policies to promote and enforce sustainable land and water management.
  • All of these elements need strong political commitment, community participation, and consideration of local realities and indigenous knowledge.

Latest Drought additions in the Knowledge Base

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Australian toolkit on international protection in the context of climate change and disasters thumbnail
Documents and publications

This toolkit provides practical guidance for decision-makers and legal practitioners assessing international protection claims in which climate change and disasters play a role.

University of New South Wales
UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law
A stark landscape of cracked dry earth beneath a clear blue sky, depicting arid climate and drought.
Update
Three things to know about El Niño

A powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific and is expected to influence global temperature and precipitation through 2027. Climate Central sets out how its warming effect compares with human-caused climate change.

Climate Central
A mesmerizing satellite view showcasing Earth's clouds and ocean from space.
Update
El Niño and commodity prices in Kenya

Modelling by IFPRI and KIPPRA finds that El Niño-driven drought and higher fuel and fertilizer prices could cost Kenya up to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2026, pushing 756,000 more people into poverty and 4.9 million into undernourishment.

International Food Policy Research Institute
Update
Europe: What a record El Niño could mean for businesses

2026/27 El Niño could amplify existing vulnerabilities in commodities, energy and logistics. Organizations that combine scenarios and make shared dependencies visible can act sooner and better protect their strategy, business model and financial position.

Ernst & Young
Case study
Location: Africa
This case study examines the REPAIR program, a US$926 million regional platform that combines reserves, contingent financing, and parametric insurance to get funds to governments within seven days of a disaster.
  • Global Shield Financing Facility
Case study
Location: Malawi
This case study explains how Malawi links pre-arranged disaster financing to its social protection system, automatically scaling up cash transfers to vulnerable households when drought triggers are reached.
  • Global Shield Financing Facility
Drought in the Amazon River, a consequence of the lack of rainfall in the Amazon
Research briefs
Extreme drought and heat signal a “new normal” for tropical forests

An international study reveals that the unprecedented heat stress of 2023–2024 will likely recur in the coming decades unless emissions are reduced. The Amazon is the most vulnerable region.

EurekAlert
Designing a parametric flood and drought insurance framework for Caribbean farmers and agricultural SMEs: Case studies of Belize and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines thumbnail
Documents and publications

This study develops a meso-level parametric flood and drought insurance model for smallholder farmers and SMEs in Belize and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, leveraging blockchain to automate payouts, enhance resilience, and strengthen rural livelihoods.

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL)
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