India: Monitoring gender and social inclusion in climate-related urban migration in Jaipur

Jaipur, the capital of Rajasthan, is one of northern India’s fastest-growing urban regions, with a population estimated at 4.5 million and annual growth around 2.4%. Drought is a statistically significant driver of rural-to-urban movement: a state-representative study found that almost one third of the analysed households in Rajasthan reported drought as a reason for migration. Jaipur’s groundwater table has fallen by 25 metres in the last decade, and one model projects that by 2028, 58% of the district’s population will live in areas where groundwater lies below 60 metres.

Migrants arriving in Jaipur typically settle in the city’s informal settlements – roughly 65 recognised slum areas under the Jaipur Development Authority, some of which are slated for relocation or upgrading. This matters for protection: relocation can improve housing and services, but it can also disrupt the informal networks that new arrivals – especially women – rely on for safety.

The South Asian Institute of Crime and Justice Studies developed the Suraksha Lens, a community-driven climate risk intelligence platform and early warning system operating across India, Sri Lanka and Nepal. It operationalised its approach through the Climate Exploitation Risk Index, a composite 0–1 risk metric that links climate hazard, exposure and socio-economic vulnerability indicators. Jaipur’s overall score of 0.58 indicates that risk stems from the convergence of multiple pressures rather than any single driver, and Jaipur East has been identified as the highest-priority sub-district.

Key takeaways:

1. Intersectionality matters: poor women from marginalised communities face layered, compounding vulnerabilities that require differentiated programming, not one-size-fits-all responses.
2. Strengthen, don’t duplicate: the persistent gap is “last-mile” access, as people often do not know what support exists or cannot reach it.
3. Community-generated data can strengthen climate intelligence: hyperlocal community evidence can help explain how broad patterns of hazard and vulnerability translate into changes in mobility, livelihoods, household decision-making and access to services.
4. Risk intelligence should connect to action: data systems are most useful when they help local actors identify emerging risks, prioritise attention, and strengthen existing response mechanisms rather than functioning as stand-alone dashboards.