Horn of Africa: Systems thinking and foresight chart a path to drought-free, food-secure futures

This case study was collected through a Call for Good Practices on Reducing Risk across SDG Transitions, launched by the UN DRR Focal Points Group in 2024.

SDGs addressed: 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 17

After the worst drought in 40 years (2020-23), UNDP partnered with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union Commission (AUC) to ask: "What if we were able to avert the next famine in the Horn of Africa?" More than 40 practitioners from Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia joined a year-long programme of systems-thinking and strategic-foresight workshops. Using Kumu mapping, Three Horizons scenario planning and local knowledge, they built a public systems map and an outcome report that identifies leverage points for conflict resolution, natural-resource governance and resilient agriculture.

Innovation and Success factors

• Three-lens hindsight-insight-foresight method links past patterns, present drivers and future possibilities.
• Open systems map (Kumu) makes complexity visible and reusable.
• Cross-sector roundtables broke silos between climate, peace and development actors.

Key impacts

• Public systems map exposing drought-food-security feedback loops.
• Solution pathways for governance, resource management and livelihoods adopted in UNDP's draft Drought-Resilience Strategy.
• DREAM regional concept note (Drought Resilience through Local Engagement & Adaptive Management) prepared for donors.
• Capacity boost - 40+ officials trained in systems thinking and foresight tools.

Lessons learned for replication or adaptation

1. Address root causes (conflict, governance, economy) rather than symptoms.
2. Participatory mapping bridges expert jargon and community realities.
3. Digital collaboration aids scale-out but requires tech support for users.
4. Time investment pays off; deep mapping sessions built shared mental models.
5. Quick-process guide supports replication in other drought-prone regions.

Organisations involved

• UN entities: UNDP (lead); UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa; UNDP Strategy & Futures Team
• Regional bodies: IGAD; African Union Commission
• Beneficiaries: Communities across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia; UNDP Resilience Hub strategy team; donors exploring DREAM programme.