Anticipating volcanic eruptions using rescaled range analysis of volcano-tectonic seismicity

This paper aims to advance the understanding and forecasting of volcanic eruptions by evaluating the short‑ and long‑term memory of volcano‑tectonic seismicity during unrest. Using the rescaled range (R/S) analysis and the Hurst exponent, the study seeks to identify the transition from anti‑persistent to persistent seismic behaviour that signals volcanic dike ascent. By applying this method to the 2021 Tajogaite eruption on La Palma, the paper also examines the temporal evolution of the GEOS diagram and its coherence with the sustained dynamics of the eruption.

In conclusion, the rescaled range analysis (R/S) represents a significant advancement in volcanic eruption prevention and forecasting by providing a no-return date associated with an imminent volcanic eruption. When combined with other techniques such as surface INSAR and GPS monitoring deformation and measurements of diffuse endogenous gas emission (i.e. SO2 emission), the uncertainty in volcanic eruption prediction is reduced. This integrated approach enables critical decision-making by civil authorities and enhances crisis management by improving anticipation and situational awareness of impending eruption.