Open risk, shared resilience: Exploring open-source catastrophe modelling as more than just a technical choice

The future of catastrophe modelling is about lowering the barriers to understanding risk on a global scale. In a world where disaster risk volatility is rising, and the protection gap is widening, access to reliable risk modelling tools is still out of reach for many people, institutions, and governments who need it most. High costs, closed platforms, and technical complexity have too often confined powerful models to a privileged few.

Open catastrophe modelling is changing that. It's making risk understanding more affordable, accessible, and inclusive. Built on the principles of transparency, interoperability, and shared standards, open frameworks are helping governments, insurers, humanitarian agencies, and communities unlock vital insights without investing in expensive, siloed systems.

This is more than a technical evolution. When catastrophe models are free, modular, and transparent, they can be adapted, improved, and applied anywhere - from global reinsurers in Paris to city planners in Dhaka. Local data can be integrated, assumptions can be questioned, and outcomes can be trusted.

This is the promise of open risk modelling and the associated data standards: a system where everyone has a seat at the table regardless of budget or geography. We live in a time when disaster extremes are arriving more frequently, with more force. Economic inequality and underinsurance continue to widen the protection gap. And amid it all, governments and insurers are being asked to act faster, often with fewer resources. The tools we use to understand risk - once confined to opaque, proprietary silos - must become more accessible, adaptable, and collaborative.

Take France, for example. After a series of devastating hailstorms in 2022 - the most expensive weather-related insured loss in the country in decades - new models developed within the Oasis open framework were deployed by Insurance Partners Europe and licensed by Generali. These models didn't just work; they resonated. Tailored vulnerability data, local calibration, and the flexibility to refine assumptions meant insurers could model hail risk with far greater precision and act faster.

Beyond mature markets

However, the potential of open catastrophe modelling goes beyond mature markets. In too many vulnerable countries, access to credible risk models remains limited. High licensing fees, limited local relevance, and restrictive data formats lock entire communities out of the risk conversation. It's a form of digital disenfranchisement. Open frameworks flip that script.

Through our work with the Insurance Development Forum's Risk Modelling Steering Group, Oasis has contributed to a suite of freely available tools designed to lower the barrier to entry. These include the Oasis Scenario Modelling Tool, which enables users to estimate the impact of selected hazard events using example footprints, an open library of vulnerability curves, and dummy or public exposure data. This tool is already being used in training sessions to help demystify modelling fundamentals in lower-income countries.

The Oasis Benefit Cost Assessment Tool shows how catastrophe models can inform climate adaptation policy. Enabling users to compare the risk estimates of different resilience strategies - such as pre- and post-investment scenarios in flood-prone areas - helps quantify the value of preparedness. This tool now supports conversations between governments and donors about more effective infrastructure spending.

And then there's the Oasis Risk Explorer, developed with the Insurance Development Forum and Maximum Information. It walks users step-by-step through key modelling choices - like whether to use historical cyclone tracks or a simulated catalogue - helping practitioners understand how different assumptions impact parametric payouts. It's not just about learning; it's about empowering.

Real-world models hosted on Oasis include the Bangladesh Cyclone Model, the Dominican Republic Earthquake Model, and the Indonesia Tsunami Model, developed by local and international institutions. These are not academic exercises; they prove that open, locally relevant, technically robust models can be created and used worldwide.

Standards matter

These are just a few recent examples of how open-risk modelling tools are deployed. But tools alone aren't enough. Standards matter. Even the best tools become siloed without common data structures and shared protocols. As John Gage famously said, "The value of a standard is that it allows for interoperability, which is essential for innovation." In catastrophe modelling, standards ensure that local exposure data in Kenya can plug into hazard layers from Europe and that a model built by one non-governmental organization (NGO) can be validated by another across the globe. That's how open ecosystems scale.

Standards aren't just about technical efficiency - they're about equity. They ensure that risk knowledge isn't the exclusive domain of those who can pay for access. As International Organization for Standardization reminds us, standards are the backbone of innovation, ensuring that services - including risk models - are reliable, safe, and relevant. And as Peter Drucker, Austrian-American management theorist, said, "What gets measured gets managed." Standards give us the comparability and transparency we need to drive better decisions.

Even Bill Gates once noted that "the advance of technology is based on making it fit in so that you don't even think about it." That's the vision open catastrophe modelling supports: tools so embedded, usable, and interoperable that they become part of everyday resilience-building - not a luxury, but a baseline.

Disruption as opportunity

Of course, disruption is never easy. But it's not something to fear - it's an opportunity to rethink the system. And with open modelling, disruption becomes collaborative, not competitive. Adaptive, not adversarial.

Ultimately, the protection gap isn't just about capital. Open-source risk modelling may not be a silver bullet. Still, it offers something rare: a pathway to shared resilience built from the ground up - with open models, standards that are shared, and a future that's more transparent, more inclusive, and more just.

Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, we anticipate even greater momentum. More open models are being developed and deployed, in lower-income and climate-vulnerable countries and increasingly within mature insurance markets where flexibility, transparency, and interoperability are becoming non-negotiable. We're seeing a growing community of modellers, policymakers, and practitioners working together across borders and sectors, building shared tools and shared trust.

The open modelling ecosystem is expanding technically, geographically, and politically. And this is just the beginning.

Dickie Whitaker has 30 years’ experience in the Re(In)surance business and, for the last 20 years, has specialised in risk and innovation, linking academia, government and finance. He co-founded The Lighthill Risk Network, Oasis Palm Tree Ltd, The Oasis Hub and is CEO of Oasis Loss Modelling Framework Ltd. He provides advisory roles to: UK’s Satellite Applications Advisory Board, ExpertGroup for the Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF), UNISDR and Cabot Institute advisory board.