Opportunities for increasing resilience to changing severe weather in Southern Africa: “Early action and enhanced adaptive capacity for all”

To support effective early action and enhance adaptive capacity for all, the authors outline six priority intervention areas: (i) understanding risks of unprecedented events; (ii) stress testing of Early Warning Systems (EWS); (iii) equipping hydrometeorological services; (iv) community participation toward vulnerability-focused EWS; (v) integrating local and scientific knowledge; and (vi) strengthening coordination across agencies. These actions support a shift, from the provision of warnings to enabling action, essential for EWS to save lives at scale. However, there is a limit to EWS effectiveness, and long-term adaptation investments and strategies, harmonized with EWS, are needed in the face of unprecedented events of the future.

For early warning systems (EWS) to significantly reduce risks from weather hazards, they need to be effective and resilient to future extreme conditions. EWS across Africa, however, face tremendous challenges including a lack of comprehensive risk analysis, issues disseminating information, and insufficient financing to set up systems, especially in the most at-risk contexts. Despite progress, many people still do not access warnings, and an alarming number of people do not act. Experience from research projects across southern Africa has identified communication gaps, a lack of trust, involuntary immobility, the limited inclusion of vulnerable groups, a lack of integration of climate change considerations into EWS design, and limited coordination of EWS across all governance levels as key barriers to EWS uptake.