Climate-economic country risk profile: Nigeria

This report examines how climate change, its economic impacts and their interaction with geopolitics shape emerging security risks in Nigeria. It focuses on the country’s simultaneous exposure to high transition and physical climate risks and uses modelling to understand possible “double cost crunch” pressures, in which climate impacts reduce growth, productivity, fiscal space and domestic investment capacity while a low-carbon transition requires large up-front capital mobilization, infrastructure build-out and institutional reform.

The report finds that climate damages can raise adaptation needs and weaken revenues while transition needs increase financing requirements when capital remains expensive and public resources are under pressure. It highlights risks to economic development, livelihoods and human security, including displacement and conflict dynamics, and notes that Nigeria’s climate risks have implications across West Africa. The report recommends diversifying energy, enhancing adaptation and resilient infrastructure, and implementing development and social protection. It also highlights the need to address tight financing conditions and ensure that carbon pricing is socially balanced.