Drought development characteristics modulate global dry–wet abrupt alternation through distinct land–atmosphere feedbacks

This study shows that antecedent drought development is linked to distinct, region-dependent pathways from drought to extreme precipitation, providing a basis for anticipating compound hydrological extremes. Rapid transitions from drought to extreme precipitation can trigger cascading impacts, but the influence of antecedent drought development on subsequent precipitation remains unclear. Dry–wet abrupt alternation events were identified using a global event-scale framework and separated into successive dry and wet phases.

These events followed approximately 32% of droughts, and their frequency increased significantly in 58% of the 26 IPCC-SREX regions assessed in 1951-2020. Model-based analysis showed that drought-development characteristics contributed 25.7% of the predictive information distinguishing droughts with and without subsequent extreme precipitation. Rapid and intense soil-moisture decline was associated with earlier, more convective precipitation, particularly in mid- and high-latitude climate-transition regions, whereas prolonged and severe drought development was associated with delayed, more stratiform precipitation, especially in arid and tropical regions.