Implementation capacity of local early warning systems: The need for localism in the EW4All initiative

This study examines the implementation capacity of local early warning systems (EWS) and argues that the localization agenda has been largely ignored in the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative. The authors propose and apply a new framework, the Implementation Capacity of Local Early Warning Systems (ICLEWS), which assesses local EWS implementation through institutional capacities across four warning subsystems: risk knowledge, monitoring, communication and preparedness. The framework was applied through a 2025 national survey completed by 2,289 municipalities (41% of municipalities) in Brazil.

The study identifies limitations in human resources and budgets, access to subseasonal forecasts, capacity to combat misinformation on social media, intermunicipal coordination and contingency planning for single hazards, especially heatwaves, and multi-hazards. Social participation showed lower scores, indicating that people-centred EWS remain incipient in many local contexts. The authors conclude that strengthening local EWS requires going beyond the formal adoption of global models to implement financing and planning strategies, continuous capacity development, adaptation of EWS to local realities, and prioritization of effective integration and social participation in warning subsystems.