Nigeria country climate and development report

This report explores the ways in which Nigeria can pursue its development objectives while considering the challenges of climate change and the opportunities of low-emission technologies. Chapter 1 presents Nigeria's development and climate context. Chapter 2 focuses on Nigeria's climate commitments and evaluates the existing legal and institutional frameworks, policies, regulations, and capacities to ensure the country achieves resilient and low-carbon development. Chapter 3 outlines development and climate challenges for selected sectors — agriculture, forests and land use, water, urban development, energy, and disaster risk management — and prioritizes policies and investment to address them. Chapter 4 identifies the impact of these policies and investments on long-term economic performance, including on growth and poverty, while Chapter 5 presents options to finance them. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes with a set of policy recommendations for all key sectors to put Nigeria on a trajectory toward its own development and climate goals.

Nigeria's growth aspirations are threatened by development challenges increasingly compounded by climate change. Without further adaptation, real GDP could fall by up to 6.8 percent by 2050, with labor productivity, health, road infrastructure, and crop production hit hardest. The pessimistic Dry/Hot scenario could push an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035. Yet targeted adaptation and low-emission investments — in agriculture, energy, water, urban resilience, and disaster risk management — could substantially reverse these losses, and in the optimistic scenario even raise GDP above baseline by 2050. An estimated $94.6 billion in climate-resilient investment is needed through 2030 alone. Nigeria has strong policy frameworks in place, including a Climate Change Act and a net-zero target by 2060, but implementation remains the critical gap.