The impact of natural hazards on elections
Election management bodies (EMBs) have always had to cope with natural hazards, but the threat posed by such phenomena has become more apparent in recent years. The number of natural hazards, including floods and hurricanes, has tripled in the last four decades. This dramatic development is consistent with the predictions of climate scientists, and it is thus a statistical fact that elections will more frequently be affected by natural hazards in future years.
Analysis
At least 94 election events across 52 countries have been disrupted by natural hazards between 2006 and 2025. During the 2024 super-cycle year of elections, at least 23 elections, including primary, local, national, and supranational polls in 18 countries, were affected by natural hazards, impacting millions of voters around the world. Countries affected included Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Czechia, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria, Romania, Senegal, Tuvalu, and USA. Many of these events were exacerbated by climate change, further disrupting activities at multiple stages of the electoral cycle (International IDEA 2026).
The aim of the report, 'Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections' (which will be updated on a regular basis), is to provide an overview and share various strategies that can be used to protect elections from adverse effects. The report considers natural hazards that are likely to increase with climate change, such as floods, heatwaves, and wildfires, as well as non-climate change-specific disasters such as earthquakes.
Our report - featuring the Election Emergency and Crisis Monitor (EECM), in-depth case studies, feature articles, analyses, publications, and podcasts - will keep you informed and invite your active participation in our ongoing dialogue.
This report was first published on 1 September 2022 and is updated on a continuous basis. Please contact us at [email protected] for any further information.