Extreme climate events and transboundary effects of global crop trade

This publication highlights how extreme climate events in major food‑exporting countries can significantly increase disaster risk for import‑dependent nations. It introduces a new metric that quantifies how heat, wet and dry extremes in trade partners accumulate into “imported exposure”, showing that countries—especially Small Island Developing States and parts of Africa—may face sharply rising transboundary climate risks through their crop‑trade dependencies. 

The study recommends strengthening preparedness for interconnected climate risks by diversifying trade, improving climate‑resilient agricultural systems, and integrating exposure to remote extremes into national risk assessments. It suggests that policymakers and supply‑chain actors should use such exposure metrics to guide adaptation planning, trade agreements and investment decisions, while future research should explore dynamic trade responses and compounding climate hazards.