Hauri, Andrin; Kohler, Kevin; Roth, Florian et al.
Trend analysis civil protection 2030 - Uncertainties, challenges and opportunities
Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich
Number of pages
This trend analysis examines artificial intelligence, digitalization, climate change. Many overarching trends and developments have the potential to alter the lives of billions of people in the coming years. For society, most of these trends represent both a challenge and an opportunity. In any case, they will also affect the civil protection system in Switzerland. The objective of this report is therefore twofold. First, it aims to provide a systematic analysis of twelve technological, societal and environmental trends for the next ten years, and second, it makes recommendations on how the civil protection system in Switzerland could be optimized in view of their impact. The analysis thus serves as a supportive foundation for further developing the civil protection system through targeted, coordinated and comprehensible strategic decision-making. The report is a continuation of the first Risk and Resilience Report on trends in civil protection from 2014, with an extended time horizon to 2030.
Four main fields of action are identified in this report.
New technologies should be embraced as opportunities.
The growing interconnectivity of vital areas, and the resulting increase in complex risk situations, increases the importance of collaboration between relevant actors at all levels.
Growing uncertainty with respect to previously unknown threats and hazards, and their potential effects, should be countered by placing more emphasis on a resilience approach.
A joint and coordinated approach by all components of the civil protection system creates trust even in uncertain times.